What follows is an excerpt from a book I was writing on Causality in 2020. I eventually abandoned the manuscript as the software ecosystem was not mature enough to fold all of causality into 1-2 tools. Recently I took out the manuscript again, to share some basic insights with a colleague, and I realised that it would also make sense to share an extract here.
Continue reading “The Counterfactual Revolution”What do I work on?
Prediction
Predictive models
Mathematical, statistical, AI/ML, whatever
RCTs vs Real-World Evidence for medical AI
Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have been the gold standard for statistical evidence, of treatment effect, for over 100 years. Their strength is in their attempt to avoid major sources of bias in a comparison of the evidence. However, they are costly to run, particularly in the domain of personalised medicine, to which medical AI products typically belong.
Continue reading “RCTs vs Real-World Evidence for medical AI”Personalised Medicine – A statistical theory approach
How do I really feel about this topic? I think that I can only work out the answer to this question by writing about it.
My suspicion is that those who shout loudest about personalised medicine know least about it. I fear that the promises being made publicly are categorically not possible. My hope is that I am wrong on this.
Continue reading “Personalised Medicine – A statistical theory approach”